Current data supports storm event pace to be at or slightly ahead of last year at this time, though with much of the month of April ahead of us it looks to outpace 2021 and 2018 easily, potentially rivaling 2020 and 2017 if it moves past the average for the month in the coming weeks. With only one week behind us and the event numbers already half way to the 5 year average, a super slow rest of the month would be needed to put a damper on things. Looking at the chart comparing storms by type, the tornado events this year have reached nearly to average levels with hail events coming in considerable less this year so far and wind ranging near average, already accumulating two thirds of event occurrences from last year. Take a look at the comparison chart, going back to the year 2000, to see the 21 year trend.
Since the year 2000, a down trend can be seen in two of the four data categories represented, the total storm occurrences and hail events, with wind and tornado showing an uptrend. Both storm events in aggregate and hail show a trend below their averages, while tornado and wind, on the other hand, show movement just above their averages since around 2015 and 2012 respectively.
As far as the trend lines go, however, they are not correlated to anything but the time values and therefore, though showing the trend, are not correlated to anything meaningful, such as reduction of or increase of fossil fuel emissions, for example. Their R2 values, in most instances, do not even register above .10 and many hover in the .16 to .30 range. The interesting thing in the chart trends, at least for me, are the two pairs, (aggregate/hail) and (tornado/wind). Each pair are moving in the same trend and begs the question if there might be correlation found between the pairs and to what extent. Might we consider that as hail events go, so goes total storm aggregate? Might we consider the pairs to correlate to each other as well, say, that as (aggregate/hail) go, then also go (tornado/wind) in the opposite direction? In any event, it’s interesting to ponder. Please, comment below and provide any insights you may have or general thoughts on the matter. All comments are welcome. And keep an eye out for more data and charts to muse over in future posts on Living Well Adjusted. Hey, and thanks for stopping by!