As unpredictable as the weather is, we’ve made every effort to to do just that, predict the weather. However, as imprecise as that can be at times, it helps us monitor it and give potential insights in the forms of warnings and watches. And when I say we, I mean those who do so on a daily on-going basis, such as those at the NOAA National Weather Service. If this blog spot finds a bookmark on your browser, we’re glad you find it valuable enough to do so. We’ll continue, as much as it’s within us, to offer material that makes for Living life Well Adjusted, whether you’re an adjuster or not. In an effort to do that, we created a Weather page. It includes the latest general weather outlook and, more importantly, any serious weather watches and warnings that may impact you in your everyday goings about. The information contained on this pages is not the work of Living Well Adjusted but is information prepared for and by the NOAA National Weather Service. Please use our site as a landing point for Living Well Adjusted and by all means, for more detailed information regarding any of the weather related material you find here, go to the NOAA National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center for a wealth of weather related material, from historical storm data to current watches and warnings of all types of environmental conditions, making for Living life Well Adjusted, wherever you may find yourself. Check out our new Weather page here…
2022 Storm Season Comparison
Current data supports storm event pace to be at or slightly ahead of last year at this time, though with much of the month of April ahead of us it looks to outpace 2021 and 2018 easily, potentially rivaling 2020 and 2017 if it moves past the average for the month in the coming weeks. With only one week behind us and the event numbers already half way to the 5 year average, a super slow rest of the month would be needed to put a damper on things. Looking at the chart comparing storms by type, the tornado events this year have reached nearly to average levels with hail events coming in considerable less this year so far and wind ranging near average, already accumulating two thirds of event occurrences from last year. Take a look at the comparison chart, going back to the year 2000, to see the 21 year trend.
Since the year 2000, a down trend can be seen in two of the four data categories represented, the total storm occurrences and hail events, with wind and tornado showing an uptrend. Both storm events in aggregate and hail show a trend below their averages, while tornado and wind, on the other hand, show movement just above their averages since around 2015 and 2012 respectively.
As far as the trend lines go, however, they are not correlated to anything but the time values and therefore, though showing the trend, are not correlated to anything meaningful, such as reduction of or increase of fossil fuel emissions, for example. Their R2 values, in most instances, do not even register above .10 and many hover in the .16 to .30 range. The interesting thing in the chart trends, at least for me, are the two pairs, (aggregate/hail) and (tornado/wind). Each pair are moving in the same trend and begs the question if there might be correlation found between the pairs and to what extent. Might we consider that as hail events go, so goes total storm aggregate? Might we consider the pairs to correlate to each other as well, say, that as (aggregate/hail) go, then also go (tornado/wind) in the opposite direction? In any event, it’s interesting to ponder. Please, comment below and provide any insights you may have or general thoughts on the matter. All comments are welcome. And keep an eye out for more data and charts to muse over in future posts on Living Well Adjusted. Hey, and thanks for stopping by!
Adjusting Well to Weather
This time of year many wet and wintery mix weather conditions exist, not the least of which, the infamous ice storm. Such weather events make for catastrophic property damages due to downed trees and power poles on buildings, hillsides giving-way and pushing structures off their foundations and, of course, flood waters flowing through or bowling over anything in their path.
So, how does one stay well adjusted in the field when the working environment constantly changes, proving itself utterly unpredictable? The weather can’t be managed (See ) but your approach to dealing with it can.
Deployments at this time of year, in any part of the country, show us just how much we can depend on the weather NOT to do what we would like it to do. As adjusters we can chalk it up to one more thing to add to the list of frustrating things we experience. However, the first thing you need to keep in mind…there’s absolutely nothing you can do about it. As much as you want to get those last two inspections of the day taken care of, with the onset of 32 degree temps., and a slight snow rain mix, it’s not worth the risk of life or limb; most insureds completely understand when you call them with the news you’ll need to reschedule. Though not ideal, as you will likely need to schedule them further out in your week–unless you have built in some space each day for the possibility of rescheduling–you must resign yourself to the fact that the smart thing to do is to stay off a roof with wet, snowy, and freezing conditions.
So, let’s talk about that, in terms of options for yourself.
- Building in a slot for rescheduling might be a good idea, at least during the spring of the year in areas where winter weather conditions persist on-again/off-again for a couple months. It’s true, you’ll scope one or two less each day you build-in a hole in your schedule but there’s a cure for that empty spot too, if you’re so inclined; it’s as follows.
- If you schedule a blank spot in your day for rescheduling appointments, like I do, you can always try and fill it in with someone on your list from the next day’s schedule. I typically keep some time open between 11-1, when I would be eating–I don’t always stop as I am packing food for the go like cashews and dates (they have great sustaining power as superfoods and even in small quantities they satiate the apatite quite well, holding me over till dinner)–or you can have a blank at the end of your day. All that being said, monitoring the weather throughout the day will help you manage your time and schedule, so if snow is forecast to start at 3:00PM, you can try to move everyone up a spot on the schedule or fill it with someone from the next day or both. Keep in mind, working in an area where weather is less of a concern, keep your schedule as tight as you like, but we all know that this time of year is storm season and when one of those blows over you’re not gonna wanna be out in it.
- Sometimes the down-time is necessary to crawl out from under a pile of other paperwork or large loss files. So, if you look at it that way, it’s an unavoidable “paper day.” I know the “hail only” folks out there can hump nearly a hundred claims a day–which, by the way, reminds me of a fish story I should tell you some day–or something like that anyway, and they can’t seem to figure out why anyone would need a paper day since you should settle everything on site. I know, I know and I love to settle on site; It’s NIRVANA! Well, a 200k commercial loss or a even a couple 50k plus residential claims with trees through the framing members of a structure can set a person back a day or two or more, though I guess with 45k authority one could actually settle on site but probably not to the tune of 6-8 (+/-) a day. So, a paper day isn’t always a bad thing and it can double as an organizing day as well.
- Speaking of organizing, out in the field I’m always trying to refine the process for myself on any number of levels: claim handling, logistics, personal care, and etc. I keep a little note pad just for ideas on streamlining my time in the field. Ideas like making a cheat sheet for sketching or estimate line items, or reviewing and revising my macros or annotation templates. Sometimes, when I come across those things while working on an estimate, I don’t have time to stop and do it then, but I do have time to scribble it down and get to it when I have some down time–like a winter weather day. There are a couple of things I know you can do on such a day; wash those pit stained shirts and stinky socks, etc., and maybe do a little grocery shopping. In any case, you get the idea…and taking a little snooze is not out of line either!
Well there you have it. A few thoughts on weathering inclement weather, in order to live well adjusted, ready and willing to meet the next day, whether or not the weather decides to cooperate. My hopes and prayers for you all…be safe and live well adjusted.